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Extended Range Forecast for Northwest Pacific Typhoon Activity in 2015 - Issued: 6th May 2015

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by Dr Adam Lea and Professor Mark Saunders
Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK

Forecast Summary
TSR predicts the 2015 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will be the most active since 2004, with activity one standard deviation above the 1965-2014 climate norm. However, forecast uncertainties remain large.

The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) extended range forecast for Northwest Pacific typhoon activity in 2015 anticipates a season with upper tercile activity to high probability. The forecast spans the period from 1st January to 31st December 2015 (95% of typhoons occur historically after 1st May) and employs data through to the end of April 2015. The forecast includes deterministic and probabilistic projections for overall basin activity, and deterministic projections for the ACE index and numbers of intense typhoons, typhoons and tropical storms. TSR’s main predictor for overall activity is the forecast anomaly in August- September Niño 3.75 (region 5 ̊S-5 ̊N, 140 ̊W-180 ̊W) sea surface temperature (SST) which we anticipate being 1.0±0.5°C warmer than normal. Sizeable uncertainties remain in the ENSO forecast but a very warm Nino 3.75 SST would have a strong enhancing effect on typhoon activity. The prediction of an active typhoon season is supported by the current ACE Index (through 5th May) being the second hig