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Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook December 25 – December 31, 2014

Countries
Kenya
+ 10 more
Sources
NOAA
Publication date
  • Needed rainfall was observed across previously dry areas in southern Africa.
  • Dry conditions prevailed across eastern Africa.

1) Although good rains were observed over the Greater Horn of Africa during late November and early December, the delayed onset of the October- December rainy season combined with an erratic distribution of rains during the season had already negatively impacted ground conditions in northern Kenya and southern Somalia. As the season is coming to an end, a recovery is unlikely.

2) Insufficient rains since the beginning of October have led to dryness and delayed planting throughout eastern Zambia, northern Zimbabwe, western and central Mozambique, and southern Malawi. Heavy rains are forecast in western and northern Zambia during the next week, which should help partially alleviate dryness.

3) Prolonged dry spells since October have resulted in large rainfall deficits and below-average vegetation conditions over parts of eastern Zambia, Malawi, western and northern Mozambique. Above-average rains are forecast in eastern Zambia and Malawi during the next week, which should help to improve drought conditions.

4) While much of South Africa has received adequate rains since the beginning of the Southern African monsoon, the northernmost and eastern parts of the country have accumulated below-average rains, affecting agricultural conditions in the region. Moderate to heavy rains are forecast over the Limpopo province of South Africa during the next week, which should help reduce moisture deficits.

5) Below-average rains since the start of the rainy season have resulted in large moisture deficits and unfavorable ground conditions in western Madagascar. Moderate rainfall is expected across the central/northern parts of the island during the next week, which could provide some relief to poor ground conditions.