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Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook July 24 – July 30, 2014

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  • A large area of enhanced rainfall may trigger localized flooding across parts of eastern Sudan.
  • Consistently poor rainfall has led to deteriorating ground conditions across northeastern Nigeria and western Chad.

1) The potential for significantly heavy rainfall remains forecast over the River Nile and Kassala provinces of eastern Sudan, which may trigger localized flooding and elevated river levels along the Nile River basin during the next seven days.

2) Since early June, seasonal rainfall has been both suppressed and infrequent across northeastern Nigeria leading to a strengthening of moisture deficits. While there is a chance for some relief with increased rainfall forecast during the upcoming outlook period, anomalously dry ground conditions are expected to persist, which still may negatively impact developing crops later into the season.

3) Although much of western Ethiopia has experienced favorable amounts of rainfall during the last two months, poorly distributed rains in parts of eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and northern Oromia have been consistently below- average since June.