ReliefWeb

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMAY :

The beginning of the military intervention in January 2013 and the rapid evolution of the conflict with the takeover of major towns in northern Mali by the Malian, French and African Union troops suggest that a rapid and spontaneous return of the populations displaced in the southern regions of Mali since the beginning of the conflict in 2012 may take place.

In this context, IOM Mali conducted an intention survey targeting 836 displaced families from northern regions currently living in the Bamako and Koulikoro regions and registered in the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) database. The survey was conducted by phone between February 2nd and 4th, 2013.

The main results are as follows:

• 93% of IDP households indicated they intend to return to their region of origin.

• Of the displaced households wishing to return:

o 92% would like to return to their former house;

o 23% wish to return in February, 32% between March and the end of the year, 40% are undecided about the date of return;

o Households will make a final decision on their return date according to the security situation in the North (62%), the school calendar (37%), and the agricultural calendar (5%);

o 89% of the respondents expect that security conditions will quickly become adequate in northern Mali, which would suggest rapid returns to the north as soon as security conditions allow it.

o Three main priority needs identified in return areas are food, transportation and shelter.

Extrapolating these results to DTM data which records displaced families living in Bamako and Koulikoro, it can be estimated that approximately 2,000 households from these two regions will return to the north as soon as the security conditions have improved. These estimates only take into account IDPs living in Bamako and Koulikoro (one third of the total number of IDPs in the country); therefore a significant flux of return displacement can be shortly expected.

This expected return flow over the coming months should be taken into account in the development of return response strategies by concerned actors. In particular, relevant actions at transit stations (Mopti, Ségou, etc to facilitate access to hygiene, water and sanitation infrastructures and protection assistance to support the most vulnerable must be implemented. In areas of origin, and without encouraging returns, it will be important to identity and adopt the support that will be required by the most vulnerable households willing to return to northern Mali.