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Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET October 18 – October 24, 2012

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1) With seasonal rains ending and as vegetation dries out, locust swarms have formed in Chad and are expected to form shortly in Niger and Mali. Swarms are then expected to migrate towards the north as well as potentially into cropping areas in western/central Mali.

2) Torrential rain from localized thunderstorms caused flash flooding in portions of northern and southern Somalia during the past few weeks. During the next week, the risk for isolated, heavy rainfall has shifted to southern Ethiopia and bordering areas in Somalia. This may trigger localized flooding in many pastoral areas in the region.

3) Several weeks of above-average and heavy rains across southern Nigeria and the release of water from dams located in Cameroon have led to widespread flooding across the region resulting in the closures of highways, displacement of local populations and damages to infrastructure. With heavy rain forecasted, the risk for additional flooding is elevated.

4) Heavy downpours which occurred across Central Kenya during the past week have resulted in flooding in the Meru district which caused at least six fatalities. With a risk for localized thunderstorms and heavy downpours during the next week, additional flash flooding is possible.