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Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2022/23

Países
Madagascar
+ 12
Fuentes
FAO
Fecha de publicación

The southern African region is going into another cylone season. This outlook covers the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) cyclonic basin. For the upcoming Southern Africa cyclonic season (November 2022 to April 2023), 60% probability of normal to below normal cyclone activity is expected over the SWIO basin, with an anticipated 6–10 named storms and the potential for 3–5 reaching tropical cyclone intensity.

During the previous cyclone season, the SWIO region saw a total of thirteen named cyclonic events. Parts of Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe experienced significant destruction and damage. Out of the thirteen events, six of them made landfall in Madagascar, three in Mozambique and one in Malawi. A post event analysis run by ARC on cyclone affected areas showed that the total number of populations at risk (people living in areas affected by cyclonic events) for the 2021/22 season reached almost 20 million.

Following the passage of tropical cyclones BATSIRAI and EMNATI over Madagascar a damage and loss assessment conducted by FAO estimated losses in production for rice and cassava at approximately 32M USD and 25M USD respectively. In Mozambique Cyclone Gombe alone resulted in an estimated 20 500 hectares of cropland in Zambezia and Nampula provinces being inundated . In addition to crop and livestock losses, cyclones caused losses of fishing gear, destruction of boats and damage to agricultural infrastructure, including irrigation systems with tropical storms from January to March 2022 impacting 28 521 hectares of irrigated crop land in Malawi.