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This report was generated by iMMAP using a combination of data service providers, key informant interviews, and open-source research to assist donors and partners in analyzing evolving security, governance, political, economic, and other dynamics that impact conditions in Northeast Syria, as well as Whole of Syria, and the operating environment for humanitarian actors. The contents of this report solely represent the analysis of iMMAP and do not represent the views or positions of iMMAP’s donors and partners. Moreover, the names and designations used in this report do not imply acceptance by iMMAP’s donors and partners.

Key Takeaways

• The cholera response in Northeast Syria (NES) is inhibited by limited treatment facility capacity and a lack of governorate-level testing, with efforts to address devastated water and sanitation infrastructure undermined by substantial funding gaps leading to dissatisfaction with authorities. The threat of cholera to displaced populations in Syria has extended beyond its borders, with the disparity in response between Lebanon and Iraq highlighting the importance of preventative investment into the region’s health infrastructure.

• Protracted drought conditions and increasing financial burdens are decimating Syria’s agricultural sector, with dramatically low crop yields indicating an imminent and acute food security crisis. Poor governance and high import prices have undermined agricultural inputs available. International efforts have failed to effectively support the sector, inhibiting farmers’ production capacity and livelihoods, and exacerbating food shortages.

• Operations against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have continued to ramp up in NES, with both the US and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) carrying out significant operations against ISIS targets. Reported ISIS attacks and the escalation of operations against ISIS, including a recent arrest of suspected members by Turkey, indicate the significance of the group’s resurgence across Syria and point to greater threats to the US and its allies.

• Anti-ISIS operations come at a time of increasing international focus on al-Hol and Roj camps, as numerous countries have made plans and taken tangible steps towards repatriating their nationals from the camps. Recent court decisions and a UN report have highlighted the duty of countries to their nationals who remain in Syria alongside an Iraqi statement of plans to dismantle al-Hol camp.

• The Coalition’s dramatic shift in leadership of the Syrian Free Army (formerly Maghawir al-Thawra) highlights the severity of perennial concerns over the adherence of the group’s leadership with Coalition goals, as well as its alleged complicity in illicit activities. The new leader’s positive reputation in Jordan may lead to revitalized border security operations, although this change alone is unlikely to result in a major shift in Jordanian policy towards Rukban camp.

• Rising drug production and smuggling continues to enrich armed groups in Syria, with the Syrian regime’s link to the illicit industry having the potential to threaten its relationship with neighboring Jordan. Drug trafficking is an increasing source of conflict in Syria amid economic impediments to other revenue streams.