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Kenya Food Security Outlook Update August 2022

Countries
Kenya
Sources
FEWS NET
Publication date
Origin
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Impacts of protracted drought and high inflation rates drive widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4)

KEY MESSAGES

 Across Kenya, acute food insecurity remains elevated due to the impacts of drought on multiple below-average crop and livestock production seasons and high inflation. In August, Kenya’s annual inflation rate hit a five-year high of 8.3 percent, driven by food, transport, and fuel prices. At the same time, the government ended the maize subsidy program that had been awarded to 129 millers to lower maize flour prices to 100 KES (0.83 USD). Maize flour prices have now risen to more than 200 KES (1.66 USD) per 2 kg packet, the highest in five years. As a result, access to food is constrained among poor households given stagnant wages in urban areas and shrinking income-earning opportunities in rural areas.

 In the pastoral areas, livestock productivity is minimal due to the drought, resulting in very low household food and income. In July, the goat-to-maize terms of trade was around 20 to 65 percent below the five-year average, driven by high staple food prices and low livestock prices. With livestock production increasingly unviable, many households are relying on income earned from casual labor or self-employment, as well as cash or in-kind food assistance via government safety nets and humanitarian aid. Despite this, food consumption gaps, the use of livelihood coping strategies, and acute malnutrition rates are consistent with Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

 In the marginal agricultural areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist in August amid significant losses in household food availability and low incomes from crop production, crop sales, and agricultural wage labor. Poor households are primarily relying on income earned from off-farm activities to purchase food. The severity of acute food insecurity is highest in Kitui, Makueni, Meru (Meru North), and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka).

 FEWS NET is regularly assessing the Risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) due to extreme drought in the Horn of Africa. Based on an Outcome Analysis using the Household Economy Analysis approach in Kenya’s Northeastern, Northern, and Northwestern Pastoral livelihood zones, as well as NDMA sentinel site and SMART survey data, FEWS NET currently assesses that Famine (IPC Phase 5) is not a credible alternative scenario in Kenya through January 2023, given the critical availability of household income from labor and self-employment activities and government and humanitarian assistance. However, it must be emphasized that Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes – associated with increased acute malnutrition and mortality – are still extremely concerning. Furthermore, if food assistance declines or if household income shrinks significantly more than anticipated, the number of households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) would likely increase.