ReliefWeb

Situation Overview

Issued on 25 September 2022 at 5 AM, “KARDING” further intensifies while moving west southwestward.

Heavy Rainfall:

• This early morning through early afternoon: Moderate to heavy rains over Isabela, Polillo Islands, Catanduanes,
  Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Isabela. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over mainland Cagayan,
  Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, and the rest of Bicol Region.

• This early afternoon through tomorrow early morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Aurora, Rizal, and the northern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Pangasinan, Cavite, Laguna, the central portion of Quezon, and Camarines Norte. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, and the rest of CALABARZON and Bicol Region.

• Tomorrow early morning through early afternoon: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, and Bulacan. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains Metro Manila, Pangasinan, Cavite, Occidental Mindoro, and the rest of Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Oriental Mindoro, and the rest of CALABARZON.

• Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.

• Due to the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by KARDING, occasional to monsoon rains are also possible over Visayas and the rest of Southern Luzon, especially on their western sections. For more information, refer to the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast issued at 4:00 AM today. Furthermore, the issuance of Weather Advisory for Southwest Monsoon is not ruled out.

Severe Winds:

• The hoisting of Wind Signal No. 5 is increasingly likely.

• In anticipation of the potential onset of typhoon-force winds, Wind Signal No. 4 will be hoisted in the next bulletin.

• During the passage of KARDING, winds may reach storm-force in strength within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted, while winds may reach gale-force in strength within any of the areas where Wind Signal no.2 is hoisted. Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) will be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 1 is currently in effect.

Coastal Inundation:

• The combined effects of storm surge and high waves breaking along the coast may cause inundation or flooding over the moderate to high-risk coastal areas of Aurora, Quezon (east coast, including Polillo Islands), and Camarines Norte.

Hazards affecting Coastal Waters:

• Under the influence of KARDING, a marine gale warning remains in effect over the eastern seaboards of Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #2 (Intermediate) issued at 11:00 PM yesterday.

• In the next 24 hours, prevailing northeasterlies and the approaching typhoon will also bring moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.5 m) over the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon. These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.

Track and Intensity Outlook:

• Typhoon KARDING is forecast to track generally west southwestward or westward in the next 6 to 12 hours, then westward or northwestward for the remainder of the day. On the forecast track, KARDING will likely make landfall in the vicinity of the northern portion of Quezon or the southern portion of Aurora tonight. The possibility of an earlier (afternoon) landfall or close approach in the vicinity of Polillo Islands is not ruled out.

• For the remainder of this evening post-landfall through tomorrow early morning,
  KARDING will traverse the landmass of Central Luzon and emerge over the West Philippine Sea via the coastal waters of Zambales or Pangasinan. The typhoon will then continue tracking generally westward over the West Philippine Sea for the remainder of the forecast period.

• KARDING is forecast to continue intensifying prior to landfall. A landfall scenario as a super typhoon is increasingly likely. Frictional effects during landfall and traverse of the Luzon landmass will weaken KARDING throughout the evening through tomorrow early morning, although it is highly likely that this tropical cyclone will remain a typhoon while crossing the landmass.

The center of the eye of Typhoon KARDING was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet and Baler Doppler Weather Radars at 285 km East of Infanta,
Quezon (15.0 °N, 124.3 °E) moving West Southwestward at 25 km/h with a maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 190 km/h

Source: DOST-PAGASA Severe Weather Bulletin