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Uganda Food Security Outlook Update: Despite increased food and nutrition assistance to Karamoja, population in need exceeds reach, August 2022

Countries
Uganda
Sources
FEWS NET
Publication date
Origin
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KEY MESSAGES

  • In bimodal areas, erratic early rainfall since late July has prompted ploughing and early planting for the second season. However, cumulative rainfall during the dry period in July and August remains below average overall across most of the country and, following poor rainfall in the first rainy season from March to June, ground water resources remain stressed. Meanwhile, in eastern and pasts of northern Uganda that received localized heavy rainfall, over 12,000 people have been affected by landslides and flash floods. Available forecasts for the September to November 2022 second rainy season indicate that cumulative rainfall will most likely be near average. However, below-average rainfall remains possible, and this could result in a fourth consecutive below-average crop production season.

  • In greater northern Uganda, recent first season harvests have increased households’ access to food and income. Despite this, many poor households are likely unable to meet all their food and essential non-food needs due to poor first season crop production, atypically high food prices, and below-average income earning. Area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through at least the start of the second season harvest in November/December. In other bimodal areas, area-level Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected throughout the projection period, though a growing number of poor households are likely facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in areas affected by poor crop production.

  • In Karamoja, cumulative rainfall in the April to September rainy season is now expected to be below average despite above-average rainfall forecast from mid-August to early September. Though crop production is still expected to be below average due to reduced area planted and damage from earlier dry spells, late season rainfall will be beneficial for replenishment of pasture and water resources. Harvests in most areas temporarily improved food consumption for some households. However, given below average crop production, above-average prices, and below-average income-earning, many households will likely continue to face food consumption gaps and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes even in the post-harvest period. Area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through at least January 2022, with worst-affected households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Levels of acute malnutrition remain atypically high in many areas.

  • Refugees living in settlements continue to struggle to meet their needs and invest in livelihoods due to above-average prices. Among those who grow food, stocks from below-average harvests were depleted earlier than usual, and many are struggling to access seeds for the ongoing second season. With most refugees highly dependent on humanitarian assistance, those who receive cash transfers are experiencing declining value of support due to inflation. Though Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected at the area level given significant humanitarian food assistance, many worst-affected households are likely facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes and worsening nutrition status.