ReliefWeb

Uneven start to the June to September seasonal rains across much of Eastern Africa

Key Messages

• The March to June seasonal rainy season ended with cumulatively poor rainfall across East Africa, particularly in the Horn. This marks the fourth sequential below-average rainfall season since late 2020. The ongoing drought in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya is likely to continue deteriorating rangeland resources (water and pasture), as the typical dry season continues with abnormally hotter-than-normal conditions from July to October 2022.

• The northward progression of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) resulted in a near-normal start of seasonal rains over the northern and western sectors of East Africa, but with localized areas recording a dekad early or late onset. However, seasonal rainfall deficits are present along the Nile River basin in South Sudan, much of northern Uganda, northwestern Kenya, and southwestern regions of Ethiopia.

• Rangeland resources are currently very poor over the pastoral and agro-pastoral regions of the eastern Horn and likely to continue deteriorating in the coming months. The upcoming deyr/short rains season is expected to be well below average, driven by the forecast La-Nina, negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and strong western Pacific Sea surface temperature gradient (WPG) conditions.

• The June to September rainy season over Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Yemen is expected to peak from mid-August into September. However, rainfall has been cumulatively below-average in Uganda, Rwanda, western Kenya, South Sudan, and the Rift Valley areas of Ethiopia. Meanwhile, the forecast above-average rainfall in August will likely increase the risk of flooding in localized areas.