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Ethiopia Drought Response July - December 2022 (Revised)

Pays
Éthiopie
+ 1
Sources
OCHA
Date de publication

Crisis Overview

The first reiteration of the Drought Response Plan was developed in April 2022 as an extract of the Ethiopia Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) for 2022 using the information available at the time. By the end of June more data became available indicating the worsening drought conditions and expansion to other regions. This revised plan takes in consideration the new data available and expand the scope of the response to the new areas affected by the drought and reviews the response strategy and resources needed to respond to the growing needs until the end of the year. It is expected that the situation will continue to evolve over the next few months. This plan will serve to organize and monitor the drought response until the end of 2022. This drought response plan is an integral part of the Ethiopia HRP 2022 and will be integrated with the HRP mid-year review to be carried out in August.

A worsening and expanding drought over the last few months expected to continue in the coming months – Following four consecutive failed rainy seasons in parts of Ethiopia, the drought impact has continued to worsen and expand over the last few months with more areas affected, notably in Afar.

Recent weather forecasts point towards a higher likelihood that the upcoming deyr/hageya rainy season (October – December 2022) will also be below-average, making it an unprecedented fifth consecutive failed rainy season. Already, owing to the revised methodology used for revising this plan to strengthen the identification of drought-affected areas, the number of affected woredas increased from 157 in the first iteration of the Drought Response Plan to 391 by the end of June.

At present, there are 16.99 million who will be targeted for multi-sector lifesaving assistance for the rest of the year. This is an increase from 8.1 million people targeted in the last iteration of the Drought Response Plan, more than doubling of the affected population identified at the beginning of the year.

Over the recent years, drought-affected pastoralist and agro-pastoralist communities in southern and eastern Ethiopia have suffered from the impact of multiple and often recurring shocks. In addition to four back-to-back failed rainy seasons since late 2020 (the worst in the last 40 years), these communities have endured the impact of desert locust infestations, conflict and disease outbreaks, including COVID-19 pandemic and previous droughts episodes notably in 2017 and 2011. Likewise, the expansion and continuation of the drought has not only affected more people, it has also increased significantly the severity of their needs and eroded any remaining resilience mechanisms almost completely. In addition, the drought has expanded to areas that have also been affected by conflict in Northern Ethiopia, notably in Afar region, or violence in other part of the country, notably in Oromia and SNNP regions, subjecting affecting people to increase vulnerability.

The impact of the drought on the livelihoods of affected communities is already devastating and is expected to further worsen in the second half of 2022 increasing the severity of needs. Recent weather forecasts point towards a higher likelihood that the upcoming deyr/ hageya rainy season (October – December 2022) will also be below-average, making it an unprecedented fifth consecutive failed rainy season. The drought impact continued to worsen and to expand over the last few months with more areas affected, notably in 9,788 Afar. According to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), “pasture conditions are among the driest on record, with few to no migration options. implementing response activities. Subsequently, an estimated 3.5 million livestock have died between late 2021 and mid-May 2022, and herd sizes are likely to decline further given very limited livestock births this season and high offtake expected during the upcoming dry season." An additional 25 million weakened and emaciated livestock are also at risk of deaths, which is a devastation for a population heavily reliant on livestock for nutrition, notably for children, and income.

Due to the limited food and milk availability for children, coupled with poor health and limited or no health and nutrition services, acute malnutrition rate amongst children has surpassed the emergency threshold in most areas. According to FEWS NET, “Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes exist across southern and southeastern areas, and there is a risk of more extreme outcomes – marked by Extremely Critical levels of acute malnutrition and high levels of hunger-related mortality – without sustained, large-scale assistance.” At present, around 9.9 million people require food assistance and 2.9 million children and pregnant and lactating women require nutrition interventions until the end of the year. The level of water scarcity is alarming for both livestock and human consumption. Surface water continues to dry up, while groundwater levels continue to decrease, and the population is traveling longer distances to reach water points. More than 13 million people need WASH assistance in drought affected areas.

The risk of gender-based violence (GBV) has also increased as women and girls are forced to travel far distances to fetch water, while in other cases they are often left alone while family members are away looking for food or livelihood. Recent inter-sectoral assessments show an increase in psychosocial distress, especially among children and caregivers, and negative survival strategies. Child labor, street begging and an increase in the number of school dropouts and early marriage cases were observed in drought-affected areas. Cases of family separation and of serious neglect of children, older persons and persons with disability were reported as well.

Recent inter-sectoral assessments show an increase in psychosocial distress, especially among children and caregivers, as well as in the resort to negative survival strategies. Child labor, street begging and an increase in the number of school dropouts and early marriage cases were observed in drought-affected areas. Based on Government data and UNICEF Analysis (May 2022), the number of child marriage cases has increased by 264 per cent in Somali, by 69 per cent in Oromia and by 38 per cent in SNNP – all regions severely affected by drought – compared to the same period (January- April) last year. Cases of family separation and of serious neglect of children, older persons and persons with disability were reported as well.

With the worsening conditions, hundreds and thousands of people continue to migrate in search of water, pasture, and assistance. leaving behind their elderly and sick family members. Further movements are anticipated in the months to come as the drought is expected to progress. Movement of communities heightens the risk of disease transmission (both for humans and livestock) due to high population concentration and weakened immunity. The longer the drought condition persists, the weaker they become exposing them to illnesses, including water-borne and skin diseases. The education of 1.4 million children has also been disrupted due to migration, school closure or sickness.

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