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West Africa Seasonal Monitor 2022 Season - Dekadal Update: July 2022, Dekad 2 (11-20 July)

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Key Highlights

• During the second dekad of July (11-20 July), heavy rainfall (above 90 mm) was received in coastal areas of southern Senegal, Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, in inland areas of Guinea, as well as in the south-eastern parts of the region, including in north-western Nigeria, Cameroon and southern Chad. In the rest of the region, including in coastal areas along the Gulf of Guinea and in the northern Sahel, light to moderate rains (up to 50 mm) were received.

• Compared to the long-term average, rainfall during the second dekad of July remained well below the long-term average in most coastal countries, from Sierra Leone through to Cameroon. Rainfall was also below normal in the north-western parts of the region (Senegal and Mauritania), as well as in south-western Mali. The central (Burkina Faso) and eastern parts of the region (eastern Niger, north-easter Nigeria, northern Cameroon and Chad) experienced above normal rainfall.

• These rainfall patterns reflect a trend observed over the past month, with drier than normal conditions recorded in the western parts of the country (except for central Burkina Faso and southern Cote d’Ivoire), while wetter than normal conditions prevailed over the eastern parts (eastern Niger, north-eastern Nigeria and Chad).

• The short-range forecast suggests that most of the region will likely receive below average rainfall, particularly the Central Sahel and coastal areas along the Gulf of Guinea. If these conditions materialise, drier than normal conditions will have been recorded between early July and early August throughout most of the region, particularly in the southern coastal areas.

• According to the PRESASS seasonal forecast updated in May 2022, average to above average seasonal rainfall is expected in most of the Sahelian Belt (from Senegal through to Chad), including Cabo Verde. Average to below average rainfall is expected in south-eastern Nigeria and south-western Cameroon. The seasonal forecast also suggests that the start of the season will be early to normal, with shorter than normal dry spells during the first half of the rainy season across the Sahelo-Sudanian zone.