Much of Southern Africa is expected to have dry conditions during the June-August period, which is typical of the lean season, while the harvesting period closes off.
A below-average harvest and worsening macro-economic conditions across the region will severely limit post-harvest improvements.
Overall, the main harvest is below average in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, southern parts of Madagascar, Angola and Malawi.
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, insecurity in DRC and Cabo Delgado in Mozambique, weather shocks, and general global economic shocks led to below-average agriculture outputs.
However, food security concerns remain over conflict areas in Mozambique and in areas where severe weather conditions have disrupted cropping/harvesting activities leading to crop loss.
Serious Quelea bird outbreak affecting Sorghum, millet, rice, and wheat crops in Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Botswana.
Much of the Southern Africa region is expected to have dry conditions during the June-August period, which is typical of the lean season, while the harvesting period closes off. A below-average harvest and worsening macro-economic conditions across the region will severely limit post-harvest improvements.
Improved food security conditions are observed over the region following the harvesting period amidst an uncountable of factors including the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and insecurity in Mozambique, weather shocks, and general global economic shocks, which led to below-average agriculture outputs.
The Impact of the Russia - Ukrainian conflict affects Southern Africa which is still recovering from the worst cyclone season. In consideration that the subregion is a net importer of the cereal, these high levels principally reflect the steeply rising international benchmark prices.
Maize prices increased in most countries prior to the main harvest period. Although seasonal price decreases are normally observed from April/May onwards, rising international benchmark prices, higher fuel costs, and expectations of reduced harvests this year could limit seasonal declines.
In Madagascar, Multiple consecutive droughts, below-average maize harvest, above-average prices and below-average labor demand are driving the Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) Outcomes across the Grand South.
In Angola, due to consecutive droughts over the past two agricultural seasons, IPC Phase 3+ food security outcomes are likely to persist through March 2023, the peak of the lean season.
In Cabo Delgado province of Mozambique, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes persist, due to conflict. In Nampula province, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to emerge in the areas most affected by the storms/cyclone, due to a likely poor harvest, and limited livelihood options. In drought-affected southern and central parts of Mozambique, poor harvest, and limited labor opportunities are likely to result in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.