Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is likely to persist through early 2023,with needs projected to remain high
Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes prevail throughout Mozambique for most poor households supported by the recently harvested crops from the 2021/22 agricultural season. However, in droughtaffected areas of southern and central Mozambique, a poor harvest, depleted food reserves, and limited income-generating opportunities will likely result in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. In Nampula province, areas affected by storms/cyclones earlier in the year are likely in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to the loss of harvests and livelihood assets. In Cabo Delgado, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes persist, driven by the ongoing conflict. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes will prevail in areas with the regular distribution of humanitarian food assistance.
In May, Food Security Cluster (FSC) partners provided humanitarian food assistance to around 374,000 beneficiaries in Cabo Delgado and Niassa, following the distribution to about 650,000 beneficiaries in April, assisting around 1,025,000 people over the two months. Due to limited resources, WFP is distributing half rations equivalent to 39 percent of a 2100 kilocalorie diet to around 850,000 people in Cabo Delgado and 74,000 in Nampula and Niassa, with the remainder of beneficiaries supported by other members of the FSC Cluster. Approximately 26 percent of the HFA was provided as inkind assistance, 67 percent via vouchers, and 7 percent via Immediate Response Rations (IRRs). WFP is warning that there is a potential pipeline break in October if additional funding is not secured soon. Targeted humanitarian assistance is also taking place in Zambezia and Nampula provinces in areas affected by Cyclone Gombe, with WFP assisting around 97,000 people in May.
In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year inflation rose to 9.3 percent, the highest since September 2017. The biggest contributors to the monthly inflation rate were food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.4 percent month-on-month) and transport (1.1 percent month-on-month). According to Mozambique’s National Institute of Statistics (INE), price increases in wheat, petrol, diesel, cooking oil, and bar soap are contributing the most to the monthly inflation rate.
Following the increase in fuel prices, bread prices increased by 20 percent and transportation prices increased by 50 percent along certain routes The rising costs are likely to reduce household purchasing power, particularly in urban areas where households are more market dependent.
The delayed harvests are ongoing across Mozambique, particularly in high production areas such as the plateaus of Tete,
Zambézia, Manica, and Sofala, the interior of Nampula and western Cabo Delgado, and Niassa province. While official production estimates are not yet available, a near-average national production is likely following a rapid food security assessment in mid-May 2022, along with ongoing investments in agricultural production such as the government’s SUSTENTA program. Additionally, remote sensing products, such as the water requirement satisfaction Index (WRSI), indicate that as of May 30, crop production is likely to be average to good, except in areas affected by poor climate shocks (poor rainfall, storms/cyclone, flooding) and conflict.