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Afghanistan Remote Monitoring Update: In rural areas, food security outcomes improve only temporarily given poor crop production, June 2022

Countries
Afghanistan
Sources
FEWS NET
Publication date
Origin
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Key Messages

  • As of late June, the harvest has reportedly concluded early across most of the country, except in the higher elevation areas where harvesting is ongoing or has not yet started. At the national level, both rainfed and irrigated wheat production is likely to be below average, with northern and northeastern rainfed areas expected to experience the greatest deficits. Additionally, below-average snowfall during the 2021/22 wet season has led to below-average irrigation water availability. This will likely lead to below-average production of second season crops (including rice, maize, vegetables, and cash crops), with downstream areas worst affected.

  • Pasture conditions are likely below normal in most rangeland areas due to below-average precipitation in the 2021/22 wet season. Many pastoralist households are likely struggling to find sufficient pasture, particularly given increased competition for available pasture in higher elevation areas. Livestock prices are currently above average and are expected to increase further with Eid ul-Adha in the second week of July. However, purchasing power for pastoralists remains below average due to significantly above-average food prices.

  • In most rural areas, the harvest has likely improved households’ food consumption given increased availability of own crops and increased access to income from harvesting labor opportunities, with area-level outcomes expected to have improved to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). However, due to drought conditions, crop and livestock production is expected to be below average in many areas. A growing number of households who receive poor harvests are likely to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between August/September 2022 and January 2023. In higher elevation rural areas, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with the harvest around August.

  • Availability of income-earning opportunities remains below normal, and prices of food and essential non-food commodities are significantly above average. Poor households in urban areas are highly dependent on markets for a large share of their food. Given below-average purchasing power, most of these poor households are likely facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the absence of assistance or Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes supported by assistance, with Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes now expected at the area level.