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Seasonal precipitation predictions in Desert Locust summer/winter breeding areas (July – December 2022)

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The latest models suggest that La Niña and the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) signal will continue but their strength will diminish. While above-normal rains are still expected for the Northern Sahel and along the Indo-Pakistan border during the summer, they are likely to be slightly less. If La Niña continues to weaken, then there is a greater risk of drier conditions in the summer breeding areas of the Sahel. But if La Niña regains its strength, then wetter conditions are more likely. As current locust numbers are extremely low, it will take several successive generations of successful breeding before locusts could increase to threatening levels. Hence, the situation is expected to remain calm to at least October and likely beyond.

How to interpret the precipitation forecast charts (see following pages). A value of 100 on the left axis indicates normal rainfall; values less than 100 indicates drier than normal conditions; more than 100 indicates wetter than normal. Little variation between models suggests greater confidence and reliability.
An asterisk indicates the most reliable model in each month. When available, the historically best model during the entire forecast period in the region is indicated in the caption.