CALM SITUATION PREVAILS
The Desert Locust situation continued to remain calm during May. Ecological conditions were dry and unfavourable for breeding in all regions because of a lack of rainfall. Small locust infestations were present in southeast Egypt and southwest Pakistan. In Egypt, hoppers and adults concentrated in the little vegetation that remained green near the Red Sea coast and formed several small groups that were treated. There is a limited risk that any undetected adult groups could move south to cropping areas in the Nile Valley in northern Sudan. In Pakistan, a few spring-bred solitarious adults were present on the southwest coast. During the forecast period, small-scale breeding is likely to commence in the summer breeding areas of the northern Sahel between Mauritania and western Eritrea and along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border. Limited breeding may also occur in the interior of Yemen and perhaps in parts of eastern and northeast Ethiopia. These areas are likely to receive above-normal rains from July to September due to a persistent La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole that are expected to intensify further. Nevertheless, it would take several generations of successful breeding before locust numbers could increase to threatening levels; hence, the situation is expected to remain calm to at least October.