After being hit by the storm systems of Ana, Batsirai and Dumaki, Emnati is now the fourth storm system to have affected Madagascar in the space of 40 days between late January and early March. In addition, the three regions of the Grand Sud-Est were affected by the cyclones and tropical storms Vatovavy, Fitovinany and Atsimo Atsinanana.
For the first time, the districts of the Grand Sud-Est, with the exception of Vangaindrano, are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) even in the middle of the harvest period. The number of people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) is approximately 67,000 (including 15% of the population of Mananjary and 5% of the population of Manakara). Nearly 638,000 people are classified as IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above and require urgent action, representing 31% of the populations of the districts analyzed.
In the Grand Sud, although the situation remains fragile, it has improved significantly compared to April 2021, with a decrease in the number of people classified as IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).
Despite humanitarian aid that is the mainstay of the household economy, from April to August 2022, 33% of the population in the Grand Sud is still highly food insecure (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 122,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), and 925,000 in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
Although rainfall has been good, production remains low, despite a significant increase (greater than the previous two seasons) that has been observed or is expected in some districts. Bekily District is an exception to this trend, with 55% of its population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse due to drought. Ambovombe is also an exception, with 45% of its population in IPC Phase 3 or worse.
In the coming months, both for the first projection period (September to November 2022) and for the second projection (December 2022 to March 2023), a deterioration in the food security situation is expected. The global context (COVID-19, Russian-Ukrainian crisis) will affect inflation and household purchasing power. The expected poor harvests will force people to buy food in markets, where prices will be very volatile. Households will implement crisis and sometimes emergency food and livelihood strategies based on productive livelihoods, depending on the district.
Thus, for the first projection period, 1.95 million people are likely to be highly food insecure (IPC Phase 3 or above), with a slight decrease in the population in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) in the Grand Sud Est. This decrease is attributed to the positive effects of humanitarian aid distributed during the current period as well as the agricultural recovery underway. On the other hand, for the Grand Sud, the number of people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above could increase moderately, as this period coincides with the start of the school year and the lean season.