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Crop Monitor Special Report: Unprecedented 4th consecutive poor rainfall season for the Horn of Africa, May 23rd 2022

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• Across the Horn of Africa, the 2022 March to May (MAM) seasonal rains were late, poorly distributed, and generally belowaverage. Seasonal rainfall totals from the beginning of March to May 15th range from less than 50 percent of average to less than 75 percent of average in most areas (Figure 1), and drought conditions are severe and widespread.

• Severe rainfall deficits affected main season Gu crops in Somalia, Belg producing regions in central, east, and southern Ethiopia, main season Long Rains crops over marginal agricultural producing areas of north, east, southeast, and coastal Kenya as well as in central Kenya.

• Little to no crop recovery is expected in affected areas of eastern East Africa as the peak of MAM season rains (late April to early May) has passed, late season rains have been highly localized, and drier-than-average conditions are forecast to continue (Figure 8).

• This is now the fourth consecutive season of below-average rainfall for eastern East Africa overall, and many areas in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya have been repeatedly impacted (Figures 3 and 4). NDVI data indicate severe vegetation stress in many areas due to multi-year and MAM 2022 drought conditions (Figure 7).
March to mid-May 2022 rainfall is among the worst in the 40-year record across parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and Uganda.

• A fourth below-average MAM season is highly concerning and is very likely to worsen an already alarming food security situation in affected regions (Figure 9). Some of these areas are also at risk of below-average June to September 2022 rainfall that is expected to erode gains made by any received rains, followed by below-average October to November (OND) 2022 rainfall that has the potential to result in a fifth consecutive below-average season.