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Special Report: 2021 FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) to the Republic of Tajikistan

Countries
Tajikistan
Sources
WFP
Publication date

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Total grain production in 2021 (first and second season crops) was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the 2020 level, due to a slight increase in plantings and better weather conditions which boosted yields, and 4 percent above the five-year average.
    Wheat production, the country’s main staple, was estimated at a near average level of 852 000 tonnes, while the output of potatoes, another main staple, was estimated at slightly below-average level of 919 000 tonnes.

  • In the 2021/22 marketing year (November/October), total cereal import requirements are forecast at about 1.35 million tonnes, including 1.19 million tonnes of wheat, 148 400 tonnes of maize and small quantities of rice and barley. Import requirements for potatoes are forecast at 265 300 tonnes.

  • Although wheat import requirements are always fully covered by commercial purchases, after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, the country’s import capacity could be significantly constrained by high international prices of wheat and the introduction of export bans and quotas in several countries in the region.

  • Despite insufficient grazing resources and fodder supplies, livestock body conditions were generally good due to an adequate availability of alternative livestock feed (from food crops waste).

  • Domestic prices of wheat flour were generally stable or declined between January and July 2021 and showed an increasing trend between August and December 2021, reflecting the sharp rise of Kazakh wheat export quotations. With the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, international price increases could result in higher domestic prices until the 2022 main harvest reaches the markets in August 2022.

  • Prices of potatoes increased seasonally between January and April 2021, followed by a decline in May and June 2021. From July, prices increased seasonally until November and declined slightly in December 2021, although remaining about 12 percent higher than a year before.

  • Overall, about 20 percent of the households were classified as moderately and severely food insecure in August 2021 taking into account their food consumption, income sources and coping strategies adopted. The prevalence of food insecure households was higher in rural areas, particularly among the female-headed households.

  • The mission found that about 32 percent of the total interviewed households spent more than 65 percent of their entire expenditures on food, which limited their capacity to make improved livelihood choices as a significant portion of their spending goes to fulfil their food needs.

  • Overall, the amount of remittance inflows in the country decreased compared with the pre-COVID-19 period and the majority of the households who received remittances in 2021 reported that these were used to cover their food needs. The situation could aggravate further due to the impacts of the war in Ukraine.