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Madagascar Food Security Outlook Update, April 2022

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  • Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are persisting throughout most of the Grand South as harvests have been delayed following poor rainfall throughout the agricultural season amidst the third consecutive drought. Large-scale humanitarian assistance, however, is expected to continue mitigating worse outcomes through May. The severe drought has also negatively impacted poor households in southwestern regions, where purchasing power has been constrained by reduced income and high prices, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Meanwhile, households in the southeast are still recovering from multiple cyclone and tropical storm strikes and will likely continue to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through at least May. In most northern and central parts of the country, where 2020/21 production was near normal, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes are prevalent as most households continue to consume own-produced food, supplemented by market purchase.

  • Across much of the country, crop stages range from reproductive to maturation with significant delays in crop maturation in parts of the Grand South, delaying harvests and prolonging the annual lean season. Typically, households would have started accessing main cereal harvests by early April. However, the delayed onset of the 2021/22 rainfall season, coupled with significantly belowaverage rainfall, negatively impacted crop development throughout the season.

  • Severe drought in the Grand South, delays in the harvest, and crop losses in the north and east due to storm damage continue to dampen agricultural labor demand and migratory labor opportunities. As a result, household income remains significantly below average, especially in the hard-hit Grand South, constraining household purchasing power and access to food.

  • In Antananarivo, local rice and sweet potato prices declined on both monthly and annual bases in March 2022 due to improved availability of these foods in the market. In contrast, prices of maize, dried cassava, and imported rice increased in March, with year-on-year changes of 7, 16, and 27 percent, respectively. Substantial increases in global prices for oil, food, and other commodities are expected to raise import and production costs in Madagascar moving forward