In recent weeks, La Niña has become stronger and the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) signal has intensified. These factors favour above-normal rainfall from July onwards in the summer breeding areas of the northern Sahel from West Africa to Eritrea, in the interior of Yemen, and along both sides of the Indo- Pakistan border. The predicted rainfall anomalies are similar to last month’s forecast, but more amplified. Even if conditions are good this summer, it will take several successive generations of successful breeding before locusts would increase to threatening levels. In the spring breeding areas, drier than normal conditions are expected to continue during May, which are expected to give way to above normal rainfall by June or July but this will be too late for spring breeding.
Spring breeding areas (May)
- Horn of Africa, Arabian Peninsula, SE Iran / SW Pakistan, NW Africa: drier than normal
- Summer breeding areas (June–October)
- Sahel of W Africa to Eritrea: wetter than normal (July–September), drier than normal (October)
- Yemen interior: wetter than normal (July–September), drier than normal (October)
- NE Ethiopia: wetter than normal (June–September), drier than normal (October)
- Indo-Pakistan: wetter than normal (June–October)
The latest seasonal precipitation predictions provided by the World Climate Service (WCS) are one of the most sophisticated products available as they are derived from eight models: CFSv2, ECMWF, and Copernicus (CMCC, DWD, ECCC, JMA, Méteo-France, UKMO).