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Pakistan: Critical Corporate Initiative: Climate Response Analysis for Adaptation (December 2021)

Pays
Pakistan
Sources
CGIAR
+ 3
Date de publication
Origine
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Key messages

Projected climate change impacts through 2050

  • In addition to analyses at the nationallevel, this report focuses on how projected climate impacts through 2050 will affect food security and vulnerability in five livelihood zones selected by the World Food Program (WFP) Pakistan, based on agroecological conditions and the districtlevel 2017 Integrated Context Analysis:
    Sindh’s irrigated plains, Sindh’s Sandy Deserts, Balochistan’s dry mountains,
    Balochistan’s dry plateau, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s (KPK’s) dry mountains.

  • At the national level, mean temperatures are projected to rise by 2050 without a corresponding increase in mean precipitation, exacerbating drought and heat stress throughout much of the country. Where more precipitation is expected, it is likely to be erratic, contribute to floods, and complicate agricultural production by disrupting sowing and harvesting periods.

  • Locally, mean temperature increases will be most drastic in southern areas of Balochistan and northern areas of KPK, and will occur across both growing seasons. Rising temperatures in northern KPK, particularly during the winter months, increase the risk of glacial melt and local glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) flowing downstream throughout the Indus River Basin. In KPK, projected increases in precipitation during both seasons further exacerbate the risks of glacial melt and flooding.

  • Droughts, which are already severe, will grow to encompass new geographic areas and increase in severity through 2050 throughout Sindh’s irrigated plains,
    Sindh’s Sandy Deserts, Balochistan’s dry mountains, Balochistan’s dry plateau, and KPK’s dry mountain livelihood zones during much of the year and both the kharif and rabi growing seasons.

  • Heat stress is already a major issue and will worsen in severity across Sindh’s irrigated plains, Sindh’s Sandy Deserts, and Balochistan’s dry plateau, particularly during the summer months and the kharif growing season.

  • Across the selected livelihood zones, rain-induced flash flooding will, in the aggregate, likely remain below critical levels through 2050. The risk will remain concentrated in Sindh’s irrigated plains and Sandy Deserts during summer and early autumn. Risk levels will also remain moderate in KPK’s dry mountains during the spring months, although increased rainfall here may drive glacial melt, localized GLOFs, and riverine flooding downstream throughout the Indus River Basin.

  • The co-occurrence of droughts and heat stress will expand to new geographical areas and grow more severe during both growing seasons by 2050. Areas of cooccurrence will expand throughout all the livelihood zones, with Sindh’s irrigated plains, Sindh’s Sandy Deserts, and Balochistan’s western plateau facing the greatest threat.