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FSNWG Drought Alert, April 2022

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FSNWG
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A delayed onset of the rains increases the likelihood of a deterioration in an already dire food security, WASH, health and nutrition situation across the eastern Horn of Africa

INTRODUCTION

In February 2022, FSNWG issued a drought special report, examining the current food security situation across the eastern Horn of Africa (i.e. Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia) after three consecutive seasons of below-average rains. This report also projected likely food security outcomes through September 2022 under two different rainfall scenarios for the March to May 2022 season: 1) a scenario of average to above-average rains, and 2) a scenario of below-average rains.

Since that special report was published, the following updates have become available:

  • Seasonal progress and rainfall forecasts: During the month of March, weather across the Horn of Africa has been mostly dry, with mild to moderate rainfall deficits appearing across areas where the rainy season should have started. Looking forward, forecasts all generally show an increased probability that below-average rains will continue in areas already affected by the drought.
  • Expected crop production levels: Based on NOAA’s seasonal forecasts, FEWS NET recently conducted crop modeling for the East Africa region which showed that, should the NOAA seasonal forecast materialize, the 2022 “Belg” and 2022 “Gu/long rains” season would result in below-average cereal harvests with localized instances of crop failure across central and eastern Ethiopia, as well as southern Somalia and eastern, southeastern, and parts of the coastal strip of Kenya, mirroring in many ways the performance of the 2021 “Belg/Gu/long” rains season.
  • Expected pastoral conditions: In pastoral areas, a slight improvement in rangeland conditions is expected during the ongoing rainy season. However, given forecasts of below-average rains and above-average land surface temperatures, these improvements are expected to be limited and short-lived, with earlier-than-normal deterioration across pastoral and agropastoral areas during the upcoming July-September dry season.
  • Markets and food prices: Assuming another below-average rainy season between March and May and given the Ukraine crisis’ potential impacts on East Africa markets, price projections for the region suggest that cereal prices will continue to rise sharply across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, limiting food access for vulnerable households already facing below-average incomes (from reduced crop and livestock sales, agricultural labour work, etc.).
  • Nutrition: The number of children requiring treatment for severe wasting have shown a sharp increase compared to the same time last year in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. The SMART survey undertaken in Mandera in March 2022 has recorded very critical levels of acute malnutrition with 34.7 percent Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) and 7.9 percent Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) rates, the highest rate recorded for the county. As Mandera borders areas both in Somalia and Ethiopia, the nutrition situation in adjacent areas of both countries is also feared to be in a similar situation given the fact that they are affected by the same acro-climatic condition.
  • Current food security situation: FSNWG now estimates that between March and May 2022, about 13.1 to 14.1 million people to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse food insecurity due to drought, including 3.5 million in Kenya, 4.1 million people in Somalia, and 5.5 to 6.5 million across southern Ethiopia.
  • Projected food security situation: During the upcoming June to September period, food security outcomes will heavily depend on the performance of the March to May rains. However, given the observed early-season dryness and updated forecasts, the current situation is leaning towards a situation that is more closely aligned to FSNWG’s below-average rainfall scenario outlined in the last report, with a likelihood of worsening food insecurity situation. As a reminder, under this below-average rains scenario, widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) area classifications are considered likely in the absence of humanitarian assistance, with 15 to 20 million people likely to become highly food insecure (IPC Phase 3+) in drought-affected areas. The nutrition situation would also likely deteriorate, with 6.9 million children expected to be wasted in 2022, about two million of them severely so. In a worst-case scenario where the seasonal rains completely fail and humanitarian assistance does not reach the worst-affected households, it is also possible that some households could face extreme food consumption gaps indicative of Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

Given the magnitude and severity of needs, FSNWG encourages that governments, donors, and the humanitarian community respond with a sense of urgency and at scale as the window of opportunity to respond before the region experiences the worst effects of the drought is now only brief. Increased humanitarian funding for the multisectoral response, including the food security, nutrition, WASH, and health sectors, is urgently required to save lives and safeguard livelihoods.