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CrisisWatch February 2022

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Global Overview February 2022

Our monthly conflict tracker warns of four conflict risks and one resolution opportunity inMarch.

  • Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee. As Russian forces continue their assault in the face of resistance, the conflict could further intensify, with major repercussions beyond Ukraine’s borders.

  • Marathon negotiations involving Iran, the U.S. and other world powersreached an inflection point that will determine whether the 2015 nuclear dealis revived or collapses.

  • After Libya’s eastern-based parliament announced it had appointed a new prime minister and approved his cabinet, the country faces a high risk of institutional division with two rival governments vying for power.

  • Deadly political violence in Zimbabwe, which erupted in February, couldescalate around by-elections scheduled for 26 March.

CrisisWatch also highlights deteriorations in five countries in February.

  • A controversial phone call discussing plans to destabilise Chad surfaced on social media, fuelling tensions between N’djamena and Bangui, and straining progress to hold a pre-dialogue initiative between Chadian authorities and armed groups.

  • Gunfire near the government palace in Guinea-Bissau gave rise to competing narratives and exposed the fragility of President Sissoco Embaló’s seat.