EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS
The ITCZ pulsed across the Marshalls the past week or so, with decent showers at Majuro, Ailinglaplap, Mili, Jaluit and farther to the northwest around Namu and Kwajalein. Mainly dry weather continued for atolls north of Majuro, and all atolls north of 9.5N.
La Nina continues based on large-scale oceanic and atmospheric conditions. A series of westerly wind bursts in December 2021 induced a downwelling oceanic kelvin wave. This downwelling kelvin wave is expected to set the stage for a weakening La Nina signal the next several months. It is possible an ENSO neutral pattern may set up by late spring. Overall expectations are for drought to continue to worsen across the northern Marshall Islands the next month or so before showers begin to pick up in March. This largely follows climatology and seasonal climate model guidance.