EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS
SEVERE DROUGHT WORSENS ACROSS NORTHERN CHUUK ISLANDS
La Nina continues based on large-scale oceanic and atmospheric conditions. A series of westerly wind bursts in December 2021 induced a downwelling oceanic kelvin wave. This downwelling kelvin wave is expected to set the stage for a weakening La Nina signal the next several months. It is possible an ENSO neutral pattern may set up by late spring.
Overall expectations are for drought to continue to worsen across the northern Marshall Islands the next several weeks with a gradual improvement late March. This largely follows climatology and steady guidance from long-range model outlooks.
For islands of northern Chuuk State (Hall Islands and Namonuitos): Rainfall looks to pick up in early March, but there is uncertainty as to whether rainfall will be adequate to meet most water needs as most shower activity looks to settle in closer to Chuuk Lagoon.