ReliefWeb

Drought at the start of season and revised 2022 forecast calls for a below-average season

KEY MESSAGES

• Rainfall between October and December 2021 registered as among the driest starts of season on the 40-year historical record, driving drought conditions to start the season. Forecasts now call for below-average rainfall across Madagascar between December 2021 and March 2022, most notably for southwestern Madagascar. The exception to this is in the east, where average rainfall is forecast.

• Given the low rainfall to date and forecast for poor rainfall for the remainder of the season in all areas except eastern Madagascar, main-season rice production in May is likely to be below-average nationally. Maize production in the south is expected to be significantly below-average, and cassava production in the south, southeast, and central Madagascar is likely to be below average. Agricultural labor opportunities will likely be below-average across much of the country, driving lower than normal income from this source. In the south, the income earned from agricultural labor will likely be minimal.

• In the south, humanitarian food assistance is playing a significant role in mitigating the severity of food insecurity, and assistance delivery is expected to continue through April 2022. Poor households will likely experience Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) as humanitarian assistance mitigates food consumption gaps throughout the projection period. However, some poor households are still expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

• In the rest of the country, widespread Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected through May, though an increasing number of very poor worstaffected households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
  These are households worst affected by the poor rainfall who have lost access to typical agricultural labor income.