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Ethiopia: Flash Analysis and Prediction (20 December 2021)

Countries
Ethiopia
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Insecurity Insight
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Despite the offer of a ceasefire to the UN by the TPLF, the Ethiopian government will continue to secure areas previously held by the TDF, though will LIKELY hold off moving any significant distance into Tigray for now, instead targeting senior TPLF members.

Summary

  • The ENDF claimed, plausibly, to have recaptured Kobo and Woldia in Amhara region on 18 December and there are unconfirmed reports of them approaching Korem (in Tigray) on 22 December.

  • On 20 December, TPLF spokesman Getachew Reda said that Tigrayan fighters were pulling out of Amhara and Afar.

  • An Ethiopian government spokesperson has already dismissed the TPLF’s statements that they are withdrawing, and has questioned the TPLF’s legal status.

  • A withdrawal allows the TDF to shorten its supply lines and regroup (especially if the ENDF bomb the TDF as it will ensure they are seen as the aggressor), while forcing the ENDF and its allied militias to overextend themselves.

  • It is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that the ENDF will seek to move much deeper into Tigray province itself; instead the ENDF will LIKELY use targeted attacks against senior TPLF members.

  • The TPLF’s call for a no-fly zone over Tigray along with a UN mechanism to verify that Eritrean forces had withdrawn from the region, as well as an arms embargo on Eritrea and Ethiopia, will also undoubtedly be rejected by both Addis and its international backers.

  • State Minister for Foreign Affairs Redwan Hussien attended the Turkey-Africa Partnership summit in Istanbul.

  • Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok met Abiy in Addis Ababa on 13 December to discuss border tensions and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD but the brief meeting was abandoned highlighting continued tensions between the two.

  • By initiating dialogue with Turkey, the Ethiopian government is both building their alliances internationally but also underlines that their aim will LIKELY be to side-line the TPLF.

  • The fact that Hamdok and Abiy’s meeting was cut short, along with the continued actions of the Amhara militias mean that further clashes around al-Fashaga are certain