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Crisis Watch December 2021

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Our monthly conflict tracker warns of four conflict risks and two resolution opportunities in January.

The recent battlefield pause in Ethiopia’s year-long war offers prospects to get humanitarian aid into Tigray and engage in peace negotiations.

The Africa Cup of Nations football tournament starting on 9 January could aggravate tensions or present an opportunity for a ceasefire in Cameroon’s Anglophone areas.

Somalia’s months-long electoral crisis escalated after President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmajo” suspended Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble, raising the risk of renewed violence.

In Sudan, Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s resignation leaves the military in full control of the transition.

With reports that over 120,000 Russian troops are stationed within 200km of Ukraine’s border, concerns about a potential Russian invasion continued to grow.

CrisisWatch also highlights deteriorations in six countries and conflict situations in December.

The Republika Srpska National Assembly passed a controversial resolution in a step toward secession, raising tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

In Sri Lanka, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa suspended parliament for one month amid growing frictions within the ruling coalition and deepening economic hardship.

A series of jihadist attacks targeted Benin for the first time in years.

On a positive note, CrisisWatch highlights five improvements in December. Notably, following months of heightened political tensions, Honduras headed toward a peaceful transfer of power as President Juan Orlando Hernández recognised the victory of Xiomara Castro.

Aside from the 70+ conflict situations we regularly assess, we track notable developments in The Gambia and U.S.-Russia relations.