WESTERN REGION: CALM
SITUATION. Scattered hoppers and adults from local breeding in Niger.
FORECAST. No significant developments.
CENTRAL REGION: THREAT
SITUATION. Control operations continue against numerous small late instar hopper bands in northeast Somalia (24 356 ha treated) where fledging started at mid-month, causing several small immature swarms to form. A few immature and mature swarms were present in southern Ethiopia (1 956 ha). Small adult groups declined in the interior of Sudan (1 550 ha) due to control and as adults moved to the Red Sea coast, causing scattered mature adults to increase slightly on the coast and in the northeast. Local breeding continues in southeast Egypt (6 ha). Isolated adults are present on the coast of Eritrea. Small-scale breeding started on the Red Sea coast of Yemen where scattered adults are present.
FORECAST. A few small immature swarms are likely to migrate from northeast Somalia to southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya in January; some swarms could also reach southern Somalia. The swarms are not likely to mature and breed until the long rains start in about April. Undetected breeding by summer-bred mature swarms may have occurred during December near the Ethiopia/Kenya border. Small-scale breeding will occur but may be limited by poor rains in coastal areas along both sides of the Red Sea in southeast Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, and on both sides of the Gulf of Aden.
EASTERN REGION: CALM
SITUATION. No locusts present.
FORECAST. Isolated adults may appear in spring breeding areas of southeast Iran and southwest Pakistan in February; no significant developments.
Small swarms form in NE Somalia
Desert Locusts remained confined to northeast Somalia and southern Ethiopia where control operations continued to reduce infestations during December. As expected, hoppers began to fledge at mid-month and formed several small immature swarms in northeast Somalia. The few swarms are limited in size and have so far remained mostly in the breeding areas. Nevertheless, it is likely that a few small swarms will move south through central and southern Somalia and adjacent areas of eastern Ethiopia to reach southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya during January. An early movement may have already occurred in late December when a few immature swarms were seen in southern Ethiopia near the Rift Valley where control operations were underway against small summer-bred mature swarms that so far have not bred. There should be sufficient teams and resources to undertake control operations well before the current swarms mature and breed, which would not occur until about April. Low numbers of solitarious adults are present in the winter breeding areas along both sides of the Red Sea in southeast Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and Yemen, and on the Gulf of Aden coast in northwest Somalia. Small-scale breeding commenced in Egypt, Yemen, and Somalia but numbers should remain low based on current predictions of poor rainfall during the winter. Consequently, the outlook is optimistic and suggests the upsurge will continue to decline. The situation remains calm in other regions.