Dry conditions are expected to prevail in East Africa until April, which will limit Desert Locust breeding until the start of the Long Rains. Initially, slightly above normal rains may occur in late March and April, followed by generally normal rains. Breeding will also be limited along both sides of the Red Sea due to poor rains from January to March. In the spring breeding areas, above slightly normal rains are predicted for April in northwest Africa south of the Atlas Mountains, the northern interior of Saudi Arabia, southern Iran, and southwest Pakistan, followed by drier conditions.
Winter breeding areas (January–March)
• Drier than normal along Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Spring breeding areas (March–May)
• East Africa: normal to slightly wetter than normal in parts of Kenya, S Somalia, S Ethiopia (March–April)
• Arabian Peninsula interior: normal to slightly wetter than normal in N Saudi Arabia (April–May)
• SE Iran / SW Pakistan coast: slightly wetter than normal (April) followed by drier than normal (May)
• NW Africa: slightly wetter than normal N Western Sahara and C Algeria (April)