ReliefWeb

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In November, at the start of the agricultural season, most households in rural areas face None (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes. Households recovering from past shocks are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to below-average food stocks and increased dependence on market purchases. In Cabo Delgado, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in conflict-affected areas. In urban and peri-urban areas, most poor households are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as COVID-19 control measures and below-average economic activity impacts household purchasing power, with the most vulnerable households likely in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

On November 12, 2021, the government officially launched the 2021/2022 agricultural season. The government projects that main staple food crops, cash crops, and livestock production will increase 4-29 percent compared to last year due to a favorable seasonal rainfall forecast and government investments like the SUSTENTA program. Overall, national and international forecasts anticipate average seasonal rainfall across much of the country, supported by a weak La Niña. As of November 20, 2021, the onset of rains has occurred across much of Maputo province and parts of the Zambézia and Tete provinces. Households in these areas are engaged in planting for the agricultural season.

From September to October 2021, maize grain prices were relatively stable throughout Mozambique. However, a 13 percent increase in maize prices in Montepuez, Cabo Delgado province was recorded, likely reflecting seasonal price increases and a below-average supply of maize grain in areas impacted by conflict. In Mocuba and Mutarara markets, maize grain prices increased by 6 to 8 percent following seasonal trends; however, maize grain prices decreased by 5-8 percent in the Bárue, Chókwe, and Maxixe markets due to localized supply and demand dynamics. Maize grain prices in October 2021 were 6-26 percent below last year’s price; however, maize grain prices were 15-21 percent above last year’s prices in Manica and Montepuez markets, with prices in Maputo and Mutarara remaining similar to last year. Compared to the five-year average, maize grain prices in October had a mixed trend. Maize meal and rice prices have remained relatively stable throughout the country.

In October, the Food Security Cluster partners provided humanitarian food assistance (HFA) to 28,000 people, following WFP delivering HFA to 925,000 people in September with a ration equivalent of 39 percent of daily kcals for September and October. Due to a lack of resources, WFP will continue to provide half monthly rations equivalent to 39 percent of daily kcals for November and December and anticipates around 935,000 IDPs and host families in Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Nampula will likely require HFA through at least March 2022. However, the distribution of full rations is likely to resume in January 2022. Other humanitarian organizations are also providing HFA to accessible areas in coordination with the Food Security Cluster and district authorities.

Based on data from the International Organization for Migration Displacement Tracking Matrix (IOM DTM), between October 27 to November 23, around 3,000 to 6,200 people were recorded on the move each week. In November, around 5 percent cumulatively of the people on the move reported intending to return to their place of origin, with around 58 percent of people on the move intending to stay where they relocated. The main arrival districts in November are Mueda (58 percent of arrivals), Nangade (24 percent of arrivals), Ancuabe (18 percent of arrivals), and Montepuez (2 percent of arrivals). Around 52 percent of the reported IDPs in November are living with host communities. Most IDPs are still unable to produce their own food and rely on HFA and support from host communities for food.

Between December 2021 and March 2022, there is an increased likelihood of an above-average number of cyclone strikes in Mozambique given the likelihood of La Nina, positive SIOD, and official cyclone forecasts from Météo France La Réunion RSMC. The development of eight to 12 cyclonic events (tropical storms and cyclones) is likely, of which four to six may become tropical cyclones. The eastern half of the South-West Indian Ocean cyclone basin is still favored as the genesis area for cyclonic events. Most trajectories are likely to be oriented towards the west or southwest, potentially threatening or hitting the eastern Mozambican coastline.