For the forty-seventh (47th) week of 2021, a total of 37 disasters (34 floods, 2 landslides, and 1 wind-related) affected the region. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand have reportedly been affected. Heavy rainfall has caused flooding, rain-induced landslides, and tornado and resulted in disasters in Sumatra, Java, Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi as reported by Indonesia’s Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB). For Malaysia, floods were reported by Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) in Kedah, Kelantan, Perak, and Selangor States. Flooding reportedly occurred in 7 provinces according to the Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM).
According to BNPB, prolonged moderate to heavy rainfall and the overflowing of rivers across Java since 22 Nov has caused flooding and landslides in several provinces and several regencies (Lebak and Serang in Banten; Bandung, Garut, Karawang, Sukabumi, and Sumedang in West Java; Blora, Pekalongan City, Tegal City, Pati, Pemalang, and Tegal in Central Java; and Pasuruan in East Java). In total, 18.5K families (85.9K persons) have been affected, 674 persons displaced and 8 injured in Banten, West Java, Central Java, and East Java Province. Reports of damages include 18.7K houses, 9 bridges, 4 roads, 3 schools, 1 health facility, 3 places of worship, and 100 ha of rice fields. Local disaster management agencies have carried out necessary actions and continue to monitor and assess the situation. The DDPM reported that the Northeast Monsoon caused flooding events in Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung, and Songkhla Province since 23 Nov. The events have affected 8.99K families (44.94K people). The floods still persist in 3 provinces and affect 134 families (670 persons) as of 29 Nov 0600 HRS UTC+7.
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed noticeably high 7-day average rainfall in Northeastern Luzon and Eastern Mindanao of the Philippines, South Central Coast and Southeast Region of Viet Nam, Peninsular Malaysia and Southern parts of Thailand (related to the development of INVEST 94W), and spreading across Sumatra, Java, and Papua of Indonesia. As of reporting, Tropical Disturbance INVEST 94W has been detected near 251 km south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh, Viet Nam. It is likely to continue to move Westwards and has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours (JTWC).
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were recorded in the region by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Ili Lewotolok (alert level III) and Semeru (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mount Taal (alert level 2) and Kanlaon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions should be expected over southern Mainland Southeast Asia, parts of the Philippines, and the southeastern Maritime Continent. Drier conditions are expected over the western and central equatorial region with cooler temperature is expected over much of Mainland Southeast Asia and warmer temperature is expected over the western and central equatorial region. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in parts of northwestern and southern Mainland Southeast Asia, central Philippines and the southeastern Maritime Continent; a small increase in chance in Parts of western and central equatorial region and a moderate increase in chance in Northeast Mainland Southeast Asia for extended dry conditions; a moderate increase in chance in for extreme hot conditions in Northwestern Myanmar, much of the equatorial region; a small increase in chance for extreme cold conditions in Southern Mainland Southeast Asia. La Niña conditions are now present in the Pacific. At the seasonal timescale, La Niña events bring wetter conditions to much of the ASEAN region.