ReliefWeb

KEY MESSAGES

• Vanuatu is warming and is expected to warm throughout the 21st century. Future rates of warming are clouded by current models’ inability to simulate very localized changes but, warming is expected to be in the range of 0.7°C–2.9°C depending on the 21st century rate of global emissions.

• Natural variability between years, even decades, ensure short- and medium-term rainfall changes are difficult to detect and project into the future. Further research is urgently required to develop models better suited to modelling the future climate of Pacific Islands.

• The sea-level near Vanuatu is projected to increase throughout the 21st century, with models showing a very high confidence in this trend. While Vanuatu’s islands have higher elevation than some Pacific Island nations’, long-term sea-level rise, in combination with local tectonic movements, threatens coastal livelihoods and infrastructure.

• Coral bleaching as a result of climate change is a significant risk to the country’s ecology and economy and is part of the global picture of coral loss.

• A realignment of the nation’s fisheries is likely, but without careful and sustainable management the future production outlook is not necessarily negative.

• Potential intensification of the most extreme tropical cyclone events threatens significant damage and loss to Vanuatu’s population. The science underpinning our understanding of future Pacific circulation patterns is weak, and likely trends are not well understood.

• Adaptation and disaster risk reduction efforts are hampered by Vanuatu’s lack of economic independence, high community dependence on subsistence agriculture, and its inaccessible location. Climate change threatens to drive poverty and inequality