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East Africa Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook, October 2021

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KEY MESSAGES

• Maize, wheat, rice and, and sorghum are important staple foods in East Africa. In Burundi, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, domestic maize production contributes over 50 percent of the national grain supply. Maize contributes relatively less in Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan, ranging from eight to 29 percent. (Annex 1).

• This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for maize in Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi for the 2021/22 marketing year (MY), spanning from July 2021 to June 2022; and for Ethiopia, the MY is October 2021 to September 2022. This includes two main harvests: 2021 Mayto-August and 2021/2022 October-to-February. While the May-to-August harvest estimates are more reliable, the October-to-February harvests are estimates and may be updated as new data become available.

• Preliminary estimates suggest that 2021/222 production in surplus Tanzania and Uganda will be similar to 2020/21 but slightly higher than average levels (Figure 1). Ethiopia’s production is estimated to be similar to 2020/21 but seven percent lower than five-year production average levels. Harvests in import-dependent Somalia, Kenya, and South Sudan will be 27, 25, and 20 percent lower than last year and 32, nine, and 17 percent lower than average levels respectively because of poor rainfall performance. Production in Burundi and Rwanda will be similar to last year but 14 percent above average.

• After accounting for domestic opening stocks, production, and requirements, the region will have above-average aggregate surpluses. Only Tanzania is expected to have an above-average exportable maize surplus, while Uganda and Ethiopia will have a below-average surplus (Figure 2). Aggregate regional exportable surpluses will be 39 percent below average. Kenya, South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and Somalia will have minor deficits. Maize prices will remain high because of high inflation and conflict-related trade disruptions in Ethiopia and South Sudan, below-average harvest in the aforementioned countries, Kenya, Uganda, and Somalia. Market-based response activities involving maize and substitute commodities should consider the projected market and trade dynamics presented in this report.