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WFP Southern Africa Seasonal Update - October 2021

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• Latest El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) updates indicate that La Niña conditions have re-emerged for the second consecutive year. As of October, ENSO forecasts expect these conditions to continue with 87% chance of La Niña in December 2021- February 2022.

• Taking into account oceanic and atmospheric factors and the La Niña occurrence, the bulk of the Southern Africa region is expected to experience above-average rainfall in the 2021/22 season. While this may portend well for overall regional crop production, close monitoring and preparedness is needed as some areas may experience high cyclonic activities, severe weather events and flooding similar to last year. Measures also need to be put in place to ensure the positive outlook can be maximized.

• Key areas of concern for normal to below normal rainfall throughout the October-November-December (OND) and January-February-March (JFM) periods are parts of western Angola and potentially western Namibia according to the regional SARCOF Seasonal Forecast.

• WFP VAM activities to prepare for the season include: 1) data preparedness (e.g. spatial data infrastructure for the 72 hour assessment approach), 2) high frequency monitoring of rainfall, tropical systems, seasonal progress and 3) partnerships for enhanced monitoring and disaster risk intelligence .