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Tropical Depression 21W (TWENTYONE), Viet Nam, Flash Update #1 (23 Sep 2021)

AHA Centre
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Viet Nam

  • OVERVIEW: According to Viet Nam's National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), at 1000 HRS UTC+7, tthe location of the tropical depression's centre was at about 13.9 degrees North latitude; 111.3 degrees East longitude, about 230km from the coast of Phu Yen, in Viet Nam's East Sea.

  • INTENSITY: Strongest winds of the tropical depression was measured at 50-60 km/h extending at about 100 km from the centre (NCHMF). Meanwhile, according to the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC-Global), Tropical Depression 21W has maximum sustained winds of 56 km/h, and wind gusts up to 74 km/h.

  • MOVEMENT: NCHMF and PDC-Global agree that the tropical depression is seen to head West-Northwest at about 15-24 km/h.

  • FORECAST: Over the next 12 to 24 hours, the tropical depression is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm and in the next 24 to 36 hours, start to gradually weaken into a low-pressure area over Southern Lao PDR (NCHMF). The centre is expected to make landfall within the next 11 hour(s), along the shores of/near Quang Ngai, with sustained winds of about 65 km/h (40 mph) (PDC-Global).

  • IMPACTS: NCHMF has issued warnings for strong wind and big waves in the sea off the coast from Quang Tri to Binh Dinh. NCHMF also issued heavy rain warnings in the area of Ha Tinh to Binh Dinh (heavy to very heavy rain—150 to 250mm of rainfall, and thunderstorms);and Kon Tum and Gia Lai provinces (heavy rain—100 to 200mm). PDC-Global forecasts that winds strong enough to make large trees sway can affect parts of Viet Nam that is in the tropical depression's path. Additionally, 76.2 to 152.4 mm of tropical depression associated rainfall was also forecast for parts of Viet Nam in the tropical depression's path. For the extended forecast, models do not show a concentrated population exposed to moderate or severe damaging winds (within the extended forecast area) at this time. All shorelines in the path of the storm are exposed to potential storm surge, and inland areas within the proximity of the storm are exposed to potential flooding.

  • PREPAREDNESS: the Standing Office of the National Steering Committee for Disaster Prevention and Control has notified those at sea about the tropical depression's path and for them to closely monitor the situation; for those residing in the central region and central highlands, to prepare and review plans of coping with heavy rain, floods, rain-induced landslides, and thunderstorms; for provincial agencies to prepare forces and means for timely rescue; and for the media to strengthen information dissemination and communication to those concerned (VNDMA).

  • The AHA Centre will continue to monitor and issue necessary updates once more information from official sources becomes available.