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Forecast-based Financing in eastern Africa: An anticipatory approach to climate emergencies (August 2021)

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Introduction

An anticipatory approach to climate emergencies

Extreme weather events are one of the leading causes of hunger around the world, yet climate-induced emergencies can no longer be considered surprise, a one-off phenomenon.
In fact, the opposite is closer to reality: such events have become increasingly predictable. As such, more can be done to anticipate, mitigate and prevent the impact of climate emergencies on the food security of the world’s most vulnerable people.

Throughout the world, capabilities in crisis forecasting, early warning, vulnerability assessments, disaster preparedness and climate risk financing have been honed over decades.

However, they continue to be used to deliver response, rather than to enable prevention and mitigation of risk.
These tools are essential for a better-informed and more forward-looking approach to crisis management. But they need to be customized to support decision-making and implement anticipatory actions ahead of climate-related humanitarian crises.

In Africa, Asia and Latin America WFP is working with national and sub-national governments to implement the Forecast-based Financing (FbF) approach which links early-warning systems with contingency plans and pre-positioned finance to mitigate and/ or prevent the impact of predictable emergencies on the most vulnerable. This brochure is specifically focused on how the FbF approach in eastern Africa is enabling risk-informed systems to reduce increasing food insecurity due to extreme weather and climate events.