The Framework outlines an approach to a collective anticipatory action delivered at scale as an innovative attempt to pilot typhoon response in the Philippines. The document includes details about the forecasting trigger (the Model), the preagreed action plans (the Delivery) and the pre-arranged financing (the Money). As this is a learning pilot an investment will be made in documenting evidence and learning (the Learning). CERF has allocated $7.5 million for this pilot in typhoon season 2021/2022.
The objective of the pilot is to mitigate, and to a certain extent prevent, the impact of typhoons on people’s homes and livelihoods, while building on government’s mandatory pre-emptive evacuation procedures that save lives. With this intervention, the most at-risk communities will have better financial resources to prepare prior to landfall. Multi-sectoral assistance will be delivered by the UN agencies, NGOs and the Red Cross/Red Crescent in close collaboration with local authorities. For example, IOM will provide cash assistance and support vulnerable families in strengthening their houses; FAO’s intervention will promote preservation of livelihoods and income by supporting poor farmers and fisherfolks to rent a secure and safe place for their farming and fishing tools and livestock while FAO’s cash- for-work will support early harvesting of high-value crops; and WFP’s multi-purpose cash will support food and other relevant needs while in evacuation. Anticipatory action interventions will mount a collective humanitarian action at scale to mitigate the impact of a severe typhoon hitting Region 5 (Bicol) and Region 8 (Eastern Visayas). The pilot will cover most vulnerable communities living in prioritized 8 provinces, with the aim to reach about 270,500 people with multi-purpose cash assistance ahead of typhoon landfall.
The Model includes a trigger mechanism based on the ECMWF forecast and IFRC/ Netherlands Red Cross 510 probabilistic typhoon impact prediction model developed for the Philippines that is using the ensemble of forecasted tracks and wind speed from high resolution model to predict the impact.
The CERF AA follows a 2-stage trigger activation:
Readiness trigger (pre-activation): 4-7 days prior to forecast landfall
a. Tropical Cyclone with potential to reach category level 4 or higher (greater than 200 km/h maximum 1-minute sustain wind speed).
b. Projected to directly impact areas within Region 5 and 8.
Activation trigger: on or before 72 hrs (3 days) prior to forecast landfall
a. As soon as ECMWF forecasts are available for a certain TC, NLRC 510 Initiative will calculate the predicted total number of totally damaged buildings, produce an impact map, and updates every 6-12 hours.
b. Threshold is reached and CERF anticipatory action activated if 72 hours (3 days) before landfall (or sooner) the predicted number of houses to be totally damaged fall within the range of 50% probability that 80,000 houses will be totally damaged to 95% probability that at least 5,000 houses will be totally damaged.