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CrisisWatch July 2021

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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

Global Overview

CrisisWatch warns of three conflict risks in August.

  • Ethiopia's spreading Tigray war is spiraling into a dangerous new phase, which will likely lead to more deadly violence and far greater instability countrywide.

  • Fighting along the state border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the deadliest since the Autumn 2020 war, could escalate further.

  • More violence could surge in Zambia as tensions between ruling party and opposition supporters are running high ahead of the 12 August general elections.

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights deteriorations in **thirteen countries **in July.

  • The Taliban continued its major offensive in Afghanistan, seizing more international border crossings and launching its first assault on Kandahar city since 2001.

  • South Africa faced its most violent unrest since apartheid ended in 1991, leaving over 300 dead.

  • The killing of President Jovenel Moïse in murky circumstances plunged Haiti into political turmoil.

  • Tunisia's months-long political crisis escalated when President Kaïs Saïed dismissed Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and suspended parliament.

  • Far right mob attacks at the Pride event in Georgia's capital Tbilisi injured dozens of journalists and strained the April reconciliation deal between the government and opposition.

We also noted two improvements. In the **Central African Republic, **the government took steps to organise a long-delayed political dialogue with the opposition and civil society. In Côte d'Ivoire, President Ouattara met with former President Gbagbo in a strong symbolic step toward national reconciliation.

Aside from the 70+ conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked notable developments in: Bosnia and Herzegovina, **Brazil, Cuba, Eswatini, Guatemala, Indonesia, Morocco, Papua New Guinea, and U.S.-Russia.**