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Climate risk country profile: Nigeria

World Bank
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This climate risk profile is intended to serve as a public good to facilitate upstream country diagnostics, policy dialogue, and strategic planning by providing comprehensive overviews of trends and projected changes in key climate parameters, sector-specific implications, relevant policies and programs, adaptation priorities and opportunities for further actions. The Federal Republic of Nigeria, herein Nigeria, is located along the inner corner of the Gulf of Guinea on the west coast of Africa. igeria is a lower middle-income country, has been the largest economy in Africa since 2012. Nigeria submitted its Third National Communication in 2020 its Nationally-Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC in 2016 and its Updated NDC in 2021. These outline the country’s efforts to promote its sustainable development goals.

Nigeria is characterized by three distinct climate zones, a tropical wet climate in the south, a tropical savannah climate for most of the central regions, and a Sahelian hot and semi-arid climate in the north of the country. This leads to a gradient of declining precipitation amounts from south to north. According to analysis from the German Climate Service Center (GERICS) of 32 Global Climate Models (GCMs), temperatures across Nigeria are expected to increase by 2.9°C to as much as 5.7°C by end of the century. Nighttime temperatures are expected to increase by as much as 4.7°C. Rainfall for the country is highly variable and analysis indicates no clear trend in precipitation. There is an expectation for an increase in precipitation amounts towards the end of the rainy season into the beginning of the dry season (September to December). Heavy rainfall is projected to intensify, with precipitation events and extreme rainfall and extreme events are likely to result in flooding events expected to impact rivers and surface water runoff during the summer rainy seasons. Natural disasters due to the increase in the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts are also expected to increase.