OVERVIEW: According to Viet Nam's National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), as of 1600 HRS UTC +7, 22 July, the centre of the tropical depression was at about 21.7 degrees North latitude; 108.5 degrees East longitude, right on the southern coast of Guangxi province (China), about 60 km northeast of Mong Cai (Quang Ninh).
INTENSITY: Strongest winds of the tropical depression was measured at 40-50 km/h extending at about 50 km from the centre (NCHMF). Meanwhile, according to the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC-Global), Tropical Depression Cempaka has maximum sustained winds of 46 km/h, and wind gusts up to 65 km/h.
MOVEMENT: Over the next 24 hours, NCHMF and PDC-Global agree that the tropical depression is seen to head West-southwest at about 5-11 km/h and is expected to retain its current strength.
FORECAST: Over the next 24 to 48 hours, the tropical depression is likely to change direction and move to the Southeast, traveling 5-10 km/h and weakening into a low pressure area (NCHMF).
IMPACTS: NCHMF has issued warnings for strong wind and big waves at sea over the Gulf of Tonkin. NCHMF also issued heavy rain warnings for the North region, Northeast region, island districts of Co To and Bach Long Vi (100-250 mm), Thanh Hoa and Thua Thien Hue (50-150 mm), and Nghe An (up to 200 mm). PDC-Global forecasts that winds strong enough to make small trees sway can affect parts of Viet Nam that is in the tropical depression's path. Additionally, at most 152.4-228.6 mm of tropical depression associated rainfall was also forecast for parts of Viet Nam in the tropical depression's path. For the extended forecast, models indicate that 7.92M people, 2.47M households, and $191B worth of buildings and infrastructure (replacement value) are exposed or within 100 km of the tropical depression. All shorelines in the path of the storm are exposed to potential storm surge, and inland areas within the proximity of the storm are exposed to potential flooding.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor and issue necessary updates once more information from official sources becomes available.