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Seasonal precipitation predictions in Desert Locust summer/winter breeding areas (August 2021 – January 2022)

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In the summer breeding areas of the Horn of Africa, wetter than normal conditions continue to be expected in northeast Ethiopia (Afar region) during August and September that would allow one generation of Desert Locust breeding. This is likely to be followed by dry weather throughout the Horn of Africa from October onwards due to La Niña conditions. In southwest Asia, after an initial relatively poor start of the monsoon in the summer breeding areas along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border, wetter than normal conditions are expected towards the end of the monsoon season (September and October) in response to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. In the interior of Yemen and the northern Sahel of West Africa and Sudan, belownormal rains are expected early in the summer (August) but should improve during September and continue in some areas in October. In the winter breeding areas along both sides of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, drier than normal conditions are expected from November to January.   

Summer breeding areas (August–October)

  • Horn of Africa: wetter than normal August–September (Afar, Ethiopia); drier than normal August– November (Somalia)

  • W Africa / Sudan: drier than normal (August), wetter than normal (September) and continuing in Mali,
    Chad and Sudan (October)

  • Yemen interior: drier than normal (August), wetter than normal (September–October)

  • Indo–Pakistan: drier than normal (August), slightly wetter than normal (September–October)

Winter breeding areas (November–January)

  • Red Sea / Gulf of Aden: drier than normal