The current ceasefire remains fragile, as the Ethiopian government will look to reinforce defences around Tigray, and the country’s borders, while the TDF will seek to keep fighting until at least the pre-conflict borders are restored, adding to the complexity of delivering aid. Meanwhile Oromia and Amhara regions will continue to see sporadic clashes.
This document provides an analysis of the current situation within Ethiopia and the implications for aid agencies working there.
The Ethiopian Government‘s unilateral ceasefire of 28 June (see previous report), continues to hold, though it remains HIGHLY fragile.
The Tigrayan Defence Force originally described the ceasefire as “a joke” but 04 July they accepted it “in principle” – but continues to recapture towns south of Mekelle from Ethiopian forces.
The number of reported armed conflict events in Tigray has declined compared to November-March but have reportedly intensified in recent weeks in several parts of Tigray.
Aid deliveries will remain piecemeal, with only international organisations such as the WFP/ UN having the diplomatic hard power to ensure supplies are delivered. An air bridge is UNLIKELY in the short term.
Armed conflict events and violence against civilians in Oromia and Amhara also carry implications for aid operations.