GRAND SOUTH: A DETERIORATION OF THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IS EXPECTED EVEN DURING THE HARVEST PERIOD
A sustained deterioration in food insecurity is expected in Madagascar’s Grand South regions from April to December 2021. Over 1.1 million people are highly food insecure in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse due to insufficient rainfall, rising food prices, and sandstorms. The lean season is expected to begin earlier than usual for the current consumption year, as households will deplete their low food stocks due to minimal production. During the current analysis period (April to September 2021), which begins with a harvest period, 1.14 million people need urgent action (IPC Phase 3 or worse).
Amboasary Atsimo is the most affected district: classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), 75% of its population is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse, and nearly 14,000 people critically food insecure in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). These people have virtually exhausted their ability to use coping strategies to access food and income. This results in a highly inadequate level of food consumption, both in terms of quantity and quality of food consumed. This district is also in a nutritional emergency in terms of nutritional indicators. The districts of Ambovombe, Ampanihy, Beloha, and Tsihombe are, classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), with 55% to 60% of their population in need of urgent action (IPC Phase 3 or above) to protect livelihoods, reduce food consumption deficits, and save lives.
During the projected period from October to December 2021, corresponding to the lean season period, with insufficient food stocks, high prices of staples due to COVID-19 and related restrictions and poor employment opportunities, the food situation will likely worsen, bringing the number of people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse to 1.31 million. The population in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) will likely double, and the number of people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or worse, will likely exceed 510,000. The district of Betioky will be added to the list of districts in IPC Phase 3 (including Betroka, Bekily, and five communes of Taolagnaro).