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Tropical Storm Elsa Situation Report No.2 as of 4:00pm on July 3, 2021

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CDEMA
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Watches and Warnings for CDEMA Participating States

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:

  • Southern portion of Haiti

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince

  • Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

  • Cayman Islands

SITUATION

Elsa upgraded around 7:45 am (AST) on Friday July 2, 2021. Elsa impacted Barbados with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph, with higher gusts. Elsa continued its path west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h) and passed near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands. Elsa moved across the eastern Caribbean Sea on July 2, and on its present track, TS Elsa will move across the southern Hispaniola and Jamaica today into Sunday. Cayman Islands and Cuba may experience heavy rains on Sunday and into Monday.

Caribbean Institute For Meteorology And Hydrology (CIMH) Analysis

CIMH is providing special weather interpretation of the current and forecasted tropical weather affecting the Caribbean region. CIMH is not an official forecasting agency.

  • As at 11AM today, Saturday July 3, Tropical Storm Elsa was centered near 17.0°N, 71.6°W moving WNW with an estimated minimum central pressure is 999mb and maximum sustained wind speed of 70mph.

  • CIMH NMM projects a more northerly path for Elsa into the Bahamas after it passes through the windward passage affecting Haiti and the eastern portions of Cuba on Sunday. However, the GFS, ICON and NHC projected track shows a more WNW path over Jamaica and Cuba.

  • The NHC track projects Hurricane Elsa to move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba heading toward the Florida Straits.

  • Model guidance suggests rainfall accumulations ranging from 2 - 8 inches associated with Elsa may be experienced over departments on the Southern Peninsula of Haiti on Saturday into Sunday.

  • High likelihood of significant hydrological impacts such as in localized flash flooding accompanied by mudslides and debris flows. Disruption to transport routes can be expected.

  • Medium likelihood of significant impacts across Jamaica from early Sunday resulting in localized flooding, traffic delays and disruption to public transportation and utilities. Some disruptions to business activities can be expected albeit during the weekend.