Large and medium producers will reach near average primera and postrera crop production throughout the region, yet below-average harvests are expected for small producers, limiting income generation for poor households. Crop damage is expected from dry conditions in central and eastern Honduras and northwestern Nicaragua and from above-average rainfall in the Pacific basin in El Salvador.
Staple food prices will be above average throughout most of the outlook period in all three countries. Imports are expected to help stabilize the effects of reduced domestic production, preventing steeper increases.
Economic recovery will continue to be uneven and gradual through January. The slow COVID-19 vaccination rollout in Honduras and Nicaragua will continue limiting economic activity, especially in urban areas, despite a minimal level of COVID-19 restrictions.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in parts of the coffee-producing livelihood zone in western El Salvador, in hurricane-affected areas of northern and southern Honduras and northwestern Nicaragua until the primera harvest in September. From October to January, the primera and postrera harvests, a seasonal increase in income from cash crop labor, and a relative decline in food prices will alleviate the severity of food insecurity in most of the region. However, several areas in the Dry Corridor will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), especially in Honduras. Although Nicaragua will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, Nueva Segovia department is also an area of concern within the Dry Corridor.