Crisis (IPC Phase 3) likely in some areas starting around October despite above-average harvest
Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present across the country and are expected through September following the above-average 2021 harvest. In areas where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present, crop production was relatively low partly due to excessive 2020/21 rainfall and continued below-average household income. Beginning in October, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in most typical deficit areas as own-produced food crops deplete and households rely on markets with below-average purchasing power. Throughout the outlook period, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in urban areas as poor households are likely to meet their basic food needs but face difficulty meeting their non-food needs.
Volatile macroeconomic conditions are expected to continue through the outlook period. Despite the declining triple-digit official annual inflation rate, the cost of living continues to increase monthly, with household income increasingly constrained. Prices of some goods and services increased in June in USD and ZWL terms following the introduction of a policy aimed to ensure application of the official exchange rate for enterprises, sourcing foreign currency through the auction system. The ZWL currency further weakened against the USD on the parallel market by nearly 20 percent between May and June.
The government has reinstated a national lockdown following a spike in COVID-19 cases; most economic activities are allowed under reduced staffing and working hours. Intercity passenger travel has been banned. Stricter localized lockdowns have been imposed in hotspots in Mashonaland West, Mashonaland Central, Midlands, and Masvingo Provinces and Bulawayo. Land borders remain closed to non-essential travel. The COVID-19 containment measures continue to impact income-earning activities, especially for informal sector activities in urban areas.